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- Market structure saw a bullish breakout in late November
- Since hitting $313, BNB has bled slowly and could see further losses
Bitcoin has traded in a range of $17.7k to $15.6k since Nov. 9. Especially in the past two weeks of trading, volatility has declined as BTC snaked from $16.7k to $17.3k. At the same time, Binance Coin registered a bullish breakout in the market structure. However, $313 put up severe resistance against the BNB bulls.
Read Binance Coin [BNB] Price Prediction 2023-24
The open interest behind BNB has been declining over the past ten days. This meant that Binance Coin could post further losses. Buyers may look for an opportunity to enter long positions on such a decline.
Binance Coin faced rejection at $313 and slowly declined towards $284
Source: BNB/USDT on TradingView
On November 18, the price formed a bearish block order. At that time, the market structure was bearish. A few days later, a strong rally above the $276 level reversed this bearish notion and the bulls once again gained the upper hand. A break in the market structure towards the bullish side was seen, and a push to $313 followed. The bearish order block delineated in cyan on the chart has turned into a bullish circuit breaker.
Since this push was quick, inefficiency was left on the cards. This fair value difference was between $275 and $290. The FVG has a confluence with the $276 significance level, as well as the bullish breaker.
Therefore, a revisit of this area may be of interest to buyers. On shorter timeframes, a swing failure pattern near the $260-$270 mark can be used to alert buyers that an opportunity may be coming. To the north, a move to $300-$315 can be used for profit.
The RSI has been near neutral 50 since early December. This showed a lack of momentum behind BNB. Meanwhile, OBV and CMF were also flat for the past few days. Neither sellers nor buyers were dominant based on last week’s trading.
60-Day MVRV Was Down Again, Average Coin Age Shows Short-Term Accumulation
Source: Santiment
Data from Santiment showed that the 60-day MVRV ratio has worked well in recent months to score local highs. This also happened around November 3 and 26. At the time of writing, the MVRV was close to zero.
Since the previous peak in MVRV, the measure of average coin age (90 days) has increased. This showed that the BNB tokens remained in their addresses and indicated a short-term network-wide accumulation.
Source: Coinglass
On the open interest side, the bias was not yet bullish. The rally from $260 to $313 saw a strong ascent on the OI. But following this decision, the price and OI slowly declined. This could indicate discouraged long positions.
In summary, while a move to $270-$280 may provide buying opportunities, bulls should wait for an entry trigger before buying.
