China COVID outbreak: expert predicts over 60% of people will be infected in China in the next 90 days

The COVID situation in China surprised everyone. Despite big claims around its “zero COVID” policy, the Chinese government is currently facing one of the worst COVID situations.

Amidst this situation, a tweet by Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist is widely circulated.

“BAD THERMONUCLEAR – Hospitals have been completely overwhelmed in China since restrictions were dropped. Epidemiologists estimate that > ​​60% of
& 10% of Earth population likely infected in next 90 days. Probable deaths in millions – plural. This is just the beginning,” Eric tweeted while sharing a video from a hospital.

Doubling time in China may not be days anymore. Doubling time may now be “hours” according to some experts – let that sink in. R is hard to calculate if doubling is & the
is in big trouble,” he wrote in another tweet.

In a series of tweets, Eric spoke about the COVID situation in China, explosion of funeral services, sharp increase in deaths, overcrowded morgues.

Coronavirus: hoarse voice among the main symptoms of COVID; learn more about it

BF.7 leads to COVID cases in China
BF.7, a subvariant of BA.5, one of the most widely released subvariants of Omicron, is the main strain of COVID.

The outbreak in Beijing began on October 27, the Global Times reported on November 10. management in public places, requiring people entering these places to take temperature measurements and show their negative nucleic acid certificates as required,” the report adds.

“Do you know that the lungs of some elderly people are damaged? Their lungs will turn white and fester”
Social media is flooded with videos of COVID victims. One of many such pleas was shared by a Twitter account, Jennifer Zeng. Recounting one young girl’s ordeal, Zeng shared, “Sorry, no time to do English subtitles, but here’s a summary of what this girl said in #Beijing: On December 17, my dad was very sick. We went to 3 hospitals to no avail. The 1st hospital is Chaoyang Hospital. Minimum waiting time 4 hours. We had to go to the 2nd, Huayin Hospital. While my father received an infusion there, 6 died. But they didn’t have a bed. We came back and tried to find a hospital that still had a bed. I went back to Huayin at night to buy medicine. I saw Several old people wait. But I’m afraid they’ll die before they can get to the hospital. I then went to the Civil Aviation Hospital. They’ve already run out of oxygen. A doctor said, your father’s illness is serious. We don’t have a bed. You can go inside to check. You don’t even have a place to stand there, not to mention a bed. Go to Chaoyang Hospital to check. They have more patients there. If someone dies, a bed will be available. We only had more than 10 people dead. today. Thus, only more than 10 beds became available. So no chance for you here. I want to save my father. No chance. So many old people, all waiting for a bed. Don’t say how mild your symptoms are. Do you know what novel #coronavirus #pneumonia means? Do you know that the lungs of some elderly people are damaged? Their lungs will turn white and become infected. They can’t wait for a doctor to see them. They can’t wait for a bed.”

“…about 200 bodies arrive every day”
“…approximately 200 bodies arrive at the crematorium each day, compared to 30 or 40 bodies a typical day. The increased workload has strained the crematorium staff, many of whom have been infected with the spreading virus. fast in recent days,” ANI news agency reported a source from Beijing’s Dongjiao Crematorium.

Up to a million people in China could die
According to one model, China will face a COVID death toll of half a million people by April. The number of COVID deaths is expected to reach 1.6 million deaths by the end of 2023, estimates the model developed and regularly updated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, Seattle.

According to Ali Mokdad, the epidemiologist involved in the model, deaths in China could rise to nearly 9,000 a day by the end of March.

What can be done?
The model estimates that reimposing restrictions, administering third and fourth doses of vaccination, and administering high antiviral drug treatment to at-risk groups can reduce the number of COVID deaths.

He also predicted that widespread use of masks can reduce the death toll to 2,30,000.

Another study that has yet to be peer-reviewed suggests that if 85% of the population receives a fourth vaccine, the rise in COVID infection in China may slow.

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