Next year is expected to be one of the hottest years on record and even hotter than 2022, experts said.
Met Office scientists estimate that 2023 will be the 10th year in a row that global temperatures will be at least 1C above pre-industrial levels, measured over the period from 1850 to 1900.
The current hottest year on record is 2016, a year that saw an “El Nino” weather pattern in the Pacific, pushing up sea temperatures and therefore global temperatures in addition to global warming trends.
In recent years, the Pacific has experienced the opposite effect, “La Nina”, which has maintained lower temperatures.
However, that should end, says Dr Nick Dunstone, who led the Met Office’s 2023 global temperature forecast.
“Global temperature over the past three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Nina – where colder than average sea surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific,” he said. declared. “La Nina has a temporary cooling effect on the global average temperature.
“For next year, our climate model indicates the end of three consecutive years with La Nina State, with a return to relatively warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.
“This change will likely lead to the global temperature in 2023 being warmer than in 2022.”
Met Office forecasts predict that average global temperatures in 2023 will be around 1.2C higher than they were before humans started driving climate change.
Last year, experts predicted that the global temperature in 2022 would be between 0.97°C and 1.21°C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.09°C. Data for the year through October suggests the temperature is about 1.16C above pre-industrial.
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Prof Adam Scaife, head of the Met Office’s long-range forecast, said that while 2023 might not break the 2016 record, it is likely to see further high temperatures.
“Without a previous El Niño to raise global temperature, 2023 may not be a record year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace, it is likely that next year will be another notable year on the show,” he said. said.
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Dr. Doug Smith, a climate forecasting expert for the National Weather Service, said some parts of the world have seen bigger increases than others.
“The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1°C for a decade masks the considerable temperature variations across the globe,” he said.
“Some places like the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.”