Here is the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), according to analyst Benjamin Cowen

A widely followed crypto analyst outlines what he thinks are the worst-case scenarios for the two major digital assets.

In a new interview on YouTube channel Altcoin Daily, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen said macro headwinds could drive Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to new lows in the bear market.

Looking first at Ethereum, Cowen predicts that ETH could lose up to 65% of its value from its current price of $1,175.

“Worst-case scenario would depend on the severity of this potential recession. It’s hard to know exactly how this will affect crypto, but I would say for Ethereum, the main levels I’m watching are between $400 and $600.

I don’t know if it’s going to go all the way down to $400, but I think a $600 ETH is potentially in the cards mainly because I think there’s a lot of evidence to suggest there’s about a cycle behind Bitcoin in terms of volatility.

[ETH’s] first cycle [was] a solid 95% bear market and Bitcoin’s first bear market was 94%. Bitcoin’s second bear market was around 87%, so if Ethereum drops 87% from its all-time high this time, or even 88%, that will put it just below $600, so I think there is reason to argue that Ethereum could have this final capitulation in the $400-$600 range.

The popular analyst goes on to lay out what he thinks could be the worst-case scenario for the leading crypto asset by market capitalization, adding that he doesn’t think it will be hit as hard as altcoins.

” I do not think so [Bitcoin] has to drop almost as much as some of these altcoins to actually [find] its bottom… The main indicators that I still watch it [still] must trigger things like Bitcoin normally has a daily close below its equilibrium price.

Right now the equilibrium price is right at $15,000, which would tend to make me think that we need to go below $15,000 at some point.

Bitcoin’s balanced price is a model that attempts to capture the fair value of the crypto king by measuring the difference between the realized price of BTC and the transferred price.

BTC is changing hands for $16,154 at the time of writing, down 2.54% in the last 24 hours.

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