Why bitcoin [BTC] may have one last dance at $12,800 before critical moment

  • Bitcoin Risked Further Price Decline Due to Delta Cap Indications and Trend Relationships 2015 and 2018
  • Price action showed a breakout was not near, even as investor confidence tumbled

The Delta price of Bitcoin [BTC] could suggest that the worst was far from over, said Ghoddusifar, an analyst at CryptoQuant. According to himBitcoin’s current Delta price was $12,800.

Lily Bitcoins [BTC] Price prediction 2023-2024

The Delta price works as the possible price resulting from the difference between the realized capitalization and the average market capitalization. This finding also formed Ghoddusifar’s analysis, implying that BTC could drop further, as seen in the image below.

Source: CryptoQuant

Look back before the turn

The analyst not only focused on the recent trend of BTC, but also provided evidence of past events. He referred to the fact that the previous cycles of 2015 and 2018 were similar to the current circumstances.

This led to a drop in the price of BTC before there was a “turning point”. For Ghoddusifar, the current situation had a downward trend everywhere, making lower prices inevitable.

He said,

“Based on the amount of bitcoin falling from the top in previous cycles as well as Onchain oscillators, although they show that bitcoin is close to the turning point, the possibility of more falls is also confirmed.”

Technically, there appeared to be valid calls from the analyst. The Bollinger Bands on BTC’s daily chart revealed that the coin’s volatility was extremely low.

Given that BTC hadn’t broken through the lower BB level, it was unlikely to expect a sharp bounce to recovery. Moreover, the price, at $17,015, had failed in its attempt to break out of the bands. Therefore, the suggested uptrend had been reversed.

Bitcoin Price Action

Source: Trading View

Moreover, the exponential moving average (EMA) also indicated a possible decline in prices. This was because the 20 EMA (green) could not overlap the 50 EMA (cyan). In this case, a bearish move was the likely option.

No risk, no reward for Bitcoin

The trend above, which suggested a BTC sink, appeared to have extended in the direction of investors. According glass knotthe bitcoin reserve risk was at 0.00076.

This point was considered weak and reflected that the confidence of long-term holders was not at its peak. In a case where the reserve risk was high and the price was low, this could signal a point to accumulate,

However, this was not the case, as it further indicated that the prior drop below $16,000 was not the lowest BTC could reach.

Bitcoin Reserve Risk and Price

Source: Glassnode

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